Testing a Conditional Claim About Trajectories — a Control Blind by Construction, and Five Ways It Was Silently Wrong
Alexander Parnell · VektorGeist · 2026-08-13 · preprint, not peer reviewed
Two systems can sit equally far from normal while one drifted for months and the other broke in seconds. This is a method paper and a negative result: a control that is blind by construction rather than by hope, verified at exactly chance on 482 units, and five distinct ways such a control turned out to be silently wrong — each of which produced a believable number first. Replicated on real spacecraft telemetry.
Read the paper — 10.5281/zenodo.21850664
Open access under CC-BY-4.0. The DOI above is a concept DOI: it always resolves to the newest version.
Nothing here has been reproduced independently, outside the project that produced it. Every paper says so. Every page of the record says so. That is the ceiling on all of it, and it does not move until someone outside repeats the measurements.